At a meeting of Georgian parliament's 'Temporary Commission to study Russia's military aggression and other actions undertaken to infringe on Georgia's territorial integrity' on November 25th, 2008 Georgia's former ambassador to Russia, fired in September 2008 by President Saakashvilki, testified, that Georgian officials had told him back in April that they intended to start  war in Abkhazia. Furthermore, he alleged that the US had given a green light for military action. This was reported by the New York Times, November 26th, 2008. According to the BBC ambassador Kitsmarishvili … Continue Reading ››

Let me announce my new book 'Der russiche Phönix. Das Erbe aus der Asche' which will be published on March 5th, 2009. This book will examine the political, economic, financial and demografic development of Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It will cover both domestic politics and external relations.It aims to give a comprehensive overview of the major aspects of post-Soviet Russia, providing detailed accounts on the Putin and Medvedev presidencies. Buy it with amazon

Also next year, my book 'Power and Petroleum' will be … Continue Reading ››

Medvedev has announced to deploy Iskander (Искандер-М) short-range missiles in Kaliningrad. The purpose of these missiles is to target the BMD interceptors to be stationed in Poland based on a Polish-US agreement signed back in August (which has not yet been ratified, however). Die 9M72-Missile (NATO-Designation SS-26 Stone) is a powerful, solid fuel propelled short-range surface-to-surface missile, land-mobile with MAZ-543 trucks (with 2 Iskander missiles deployed on a truck) and can be fired quite fast (less than 8 minutes after warning). The missile’s … Continue Reading ››

Interim O.S.C.E. briefings in August and October 2008 have revealed that Georgian heavy artillery shelling of the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali starting at 11:30 p.m was indiscriminate. The O.S.C.E. observes including Polish, Belorussian and Finnish members, disputed the Georgian governments claim, that Georgia both responded to heavy separatist shelling of Georgian villages and conducted targeted attacks on Tskhinvali locations. Former British Army Captain Ryan Grist, head of the O.S.C.E. mission in Georgia reported: 'It was clear to me that the attack was completely indiscriminate and disproportionate to any, if indeed there had … Continue Reading ››

It is up to 60 billion dollars of foreign capital Russia has lost since August. Russia’s hard currency and gold reserves have slipped for the last 6 weeks down 65 billion. A further meltdown of its currency reserves could have a negative effect on Russia’s credit rating (which currently stands at BBB+). Russian companies and banks which are heavily indebted to western banks – total sovereign corporate debt is about 480 Bln. USD – suffer from a serious liquidity crunch. In the 4th quarter … Continue Reading ››

... As I had predicted already on September, 8th, the conference about a peace settlement for Georgia - mediated by Sarkozy and Medvedev on that very day - has failed. The meeting was just now cancelled. The meeting, if it will happen at all, will be organised only at technical levels. It remains to be seen, whether the cancellation by the EU will have an impact on the restart of EU-Russia negotiations on a new bilateral framework agreement.

... Russian foreign minister Lavrov has announced, Russia will guarantee that … Continue Reading ››

Once more an opposition-minded journalist and political activist was killed in Russia. Magomed Evloev who was arrested yesterday by Ingushetian police died hours later by a shot in his head. Authorities still claim that it his death was accidental, but this version is hardly credible. Evloyev ran the website www.ingushetiya.ru. In his most recent camapign against the authorities, Evloyev tried to unveil electoral fraud in the State Duma elections in Ingushetiya in December 2007. He questioned the official voter turnout and had been collecting signatures of those who had not taken part … Continue Reading ››

In der Georgienkrise wird von allen beteiligten Akteuren das Völkerrecht bemüht. Die Vorstellung aber, Rechtsnormen wären zwingende Handlungskorridore für Staaten ist höchst anfechtbar. Rechtsnormen sind das Ergebnis machtpolitischer Interessen starker Staaten; schwache Staaten ziehen daraus Schutz, (militärisch) starken Staaten dienen Normen dazu, Legitimität für das eigene Handeln bereitzustellen. Im Kern der äußeren Souveränität von Staaten – der militärischen Sicherheit – aber, ist die Rechtsbeugung durch starke Staaten immer dann gegeben, wenn vitale Interessen durch Rechtsnormen beschädigt werden.

Die Zuflucht zu subtilsten legalistischen Begründungen hat sowohl in der Frage der staatlichen Selbständigkeit des Kosovo als auch Abchasiens den … Continue Reading ››