On more than one occasion Putin has ruled out changing Russia’s Constitution allowing him to stay President for a third term. Does Putin leave the stage? Now he is telling us, he might well accept the position as Head of Government. But what if he does not mean it:
In December 2007 he will be elected to the State Duma, in full accordance with electoral law. Everybody expects him to decline his seat and remain President. However: He might as well accept the seat and resign as President of Russia. Prime Minister Zubkov would then take over as a caretaker president, thus discontinuing Putins presidency. According to my understanding of the Russian Constitution this could enable Putin to run for the Russian Presidency in March 2008 without violating the constitutional norms. Is he going to fool us all?
Maybe not all? 🙂
If seriously, don’t you think that would be too straightforward… maybe legally correct, but…
Why does not he change the Constitution to get the third term? Clearly – not to join the Lukashenko club… Then why do smth, which again, theoretically will be legally clean, but in reality will/might cause same uproar?
(On the other hand, if he would, i.e., introduce the "technical" presidency without his participation in the government, how can one guarantee that the successor would not try to get rid of the system created by the predecessor…? which was already done, as we know…)
Hi,I found this quote in AFP news (I searched hard but could not find it in English, personal translation below):"[…] Certains suggèrent même qu’il soit candidat en mars 2008 en démissionnant de la présidence une fois élu à la Douma (Parlement) et en se présentant alors comme député, ce qui lui permettrait de contourner la règle sur la limitation des mandats présidentiels. […]"http://actu.voila.fr/Article/mmd–francais–journal_internet–une/Devant-ses- partisans-Poutine-promet-un-renouvellement-total-du-pouvoir-en-Russie.html Translation (M. Baudier): "[…] Some even suggest that he would be a candidate in March 2008 by resigning from the presidency when he is elected to the Duma (parliament) and by running as a deputy, which would allow him to workaround the rule on the limit of presidential mandates. […]"So, apparently this theory is gaining ground…
Thanks a lot for the hint. Actually Nezavissimaya gazeta had a story on this on November 16th, 2007 as well. And meanwhile the scenario is widely discussed in Moscow. I am proud of myself that I considered it a possibility already on October 4th; but then again, I published it only on this blog 🙁
Hi! I would like to know your view on the following scenario: Putin becomes prime minister, strengthens the position constitutionally and thereby creates in the long run a certain institutional path-dependency fostering democracy in Russia. It might not be his intention, but wouldn’t that be a possible scenario out of an optimistic perspective? Best regards Markus Pausch
I do not consider this a realistic scenario, though no one can, of course, rule it out.
Having left behind the power of the Kremlin Presidency it would be extremely difficult to mobilize sufficient support for constitutional changes upgrading the office of Head of Government. Any incumbent president would do everything possible to derail such an effort as it would weaken himself.