The recognition of Abkhazia’s and South Ossetia’s independence comes as a surpise to me (and most other Russia analysts) because it seems not to have any added value for Russia. Russia already had the regions under control, both are totally dependent on Moscow and Russia’s could not have been accused of violating international law. Well, for whatever reason, the Russians have proved us wrong.

What is more, the timing doe come as a surprise. If at all, I had expected the recognition to be made after (sic) the special EU summit in case the EU was to announce harsh measures against Russia. Now, the EU will almost certainly will have to take hasrher decisions it -according to my information – had wanted. Russia by today’s decision undermined all the EU countries which had tried to stop the escalation of words and actions by the EU – such as Spain, Italy and to a much lesser extent by France and Germany. This will now not work any longer. It cannot be excluded any longer that the EU will officially suspend the negotations with Russia on a new framework agreement. Besides, it is dead certain the the EU will adopt a comprehensive package in support of Ukraine’s rapprochment with the EU.

… The French have decided to call for an extraordinary meeting of the EU on the Russian-Georgian crisis. I do not consider it a wise decision except for some symbolism in EU-Russian relations. The medie will expect some major decision of the EU on its  relations with Russia now that Russia does not seem to stick  to  the 6-points ceasefire agreement. What has the summit to offer in this respect. But what can the French Presidency offer? To suspend the negotiations with Russia abput a new framework agreement? It does not bother the Russians much. Russian and EU expectations regarding this document had seemed to be irreconcilable anyway. Freezing the PCA? Nothing will hurt the Russians by this decision? Despite some harsh rhetoric the summit will therefore be without any substantial outcome. I do not consider it a wise decision. Raising expecttaions which can’t be met is somewhat a foolish step in diplomacy.

… Anna Neistat from Human Rights Watch who had visited the conflict zone in Georgia reported in an interview with the Neue Zürcher Zeitung on August 22nd, that both (sic) sides had used cluster bombs in civilian areas: the Georgians in Zkhinvali, the Russians in Gori.

She also confirmed that Georgian armed forces have shelled Zkhinvali indiscriminately with multiple-rocket launchers of the Type ‘Grad’ for several hours in their initial attack on the South Ossetian city.

… The new US ambassador Beyrle has given a most interesting interview to the Russian daily Kommersant. He noted: Мы видим, что российские войска вполне обоснованно ответили на нападение на миротворцев РФ в Южной Осетии. Но теперь эти силы перешли на грузинскую землю, и территориальная целостность Грузии оказалась под угрозо.’ (August 22nd, 2008).

… Georgian Deputy Defence Minister Kutelia  in an interview with the Financial Times on August 22nd confirmed, that  the Georgians had not expected such a strong Russian counter-strike. This refernce to strategic military naivite may (sic) be an explanation for the events in the night of August 8th.